Thursday, May 21, 2009

The Non Believers

How many times have you tried to explain +ev and failed?

I tried this with the missus recently. She understand that poker is a skilled game that involves some luck. She even uses the word variance from time to time. What she fails to understand are basic odds. She refuses to put her money in when the chances of losing are high.

I offered this deal. Would she bet £50 with a 1 in 100 chance of winning £1m. She declined because she probably wouldnt win it.

This is an extreme example of course and a little amusing but this also rings true with people that do not understand poker being a long term game. In more realistic terms how about if the prize was £5500. How many times would you take that offer above before you started getting frustrated? Poker players know that they would take that bet as many times as they could as every bet they take they theoretically make money. Bad and non poker players cannot grasp this.

Theres nothing new in the above, I just felt like writing as Ive been a little quiet recently. I feel like the move down to 50nl has helped. I have had the beats, ive run into a ton of bad players and ive also had my fair share of suckouts but overall my bankroll is building again and my game feels like it is back on track.

There are always fish swimming in these waters..

50nl allows you to get away with these sort of plays.
x2 overbet for values against known fish. I wouldnt be doing this against a reg but look out for fishy bites like these ones. wtf is that call about. loool he calls with a very large range here.

Monday, May 11, 2009

Confused as Hell!

My game is broken.

That is my promised 10k hands at 50nl. The landslide at the beginning was the follow on from the losses I was suffering at 100nl. My game was tilted, I was over aggressive and ran into a shitload of bad luck.

The bottom of the graph was where I reigned in the aggression. I became a lot more passive which is not really my game. But the results speak for themselves.

I honestly believe that sites play differently. My days at AP were easy. My style of play must have fit in perfectly. I never had a losing week. At William Hill (ipoker) I am struggling bigtime.

I think I may stay at 50nl until im fixed.

Ive got a few interesting hand histories to talk about for the next post. Apologies for neglecitng this blog but I find it hard to write when my game is so fooked.

Positive state of mind does wonders.