Tuesday, September 4, 2012
How many hands to see true winrate
What a difference a few thousand hands make. So firstly apologies for not playing the amount expected. Ive been travelling a little and am involved in a new start up company. but thats boring so....
Im just short of my first 10k hands at 25nl. As you may remember I jumped back in, started losing, read Verneers crushing the micros, reread my own how to beat 50nl and this produced a turnaroud.
Just after the 4k mark is where i stopped and looked at my game. You can see at the moment I am winning at 2.77 bb/100. Whilst not good that cant really be a true reflection of what has happened. Take a look at the numbers from my last 4k hands....
Again, 16.25 bb/100 is not accurate. I know any regular readers (if they still poke around here) will know this but for the aspiring low level online player this is a good example of a fact that you need 10's of thousands of hands to see a true win rate. There have been a ton of posts about this on 2p2 forums over the years and its true that you will need a huge sample size to get close to seeing your true win rate..
This also points out a small fact that its all about correct decisions, not about where your graph goes in the next 2k, 5k, 10k hands.. over time correct decisions = profit.
Poker online is a LONG TERM GAME. dont forget it. Its a grind. Make it fun and have some goals..
Will post again at 10k hands.
Posted by Ryverrat