Tuesday, September 4, 2012

How many hands to see true winrate

What a difference a few thousand hands make. So firstly apologies for not playing the amount expected. Ive been travelling a little and am involved in a new start up company. but thats boring so....

Im just short of my first 10k hands at 25nl. As you may remember I jumped back in, started losing, read Verneers crushing the micros, reread my own how to beat 50nl and this produced a turnaroud.

Just after the 4k mark is where i stopped and looked at my game. You can see at the moment I am winning at 2.77 bb/100. Whilst not good that cant really be a true reflection of what has happened. Take a look at the numbers from my last 4k hands....

Again, 16.25 bb/100 is not accurate. I know any regular readers (if they still poke around here) will know this but for the aspiring low level online player this is a good example of a fact that you need 10's of thousands of hands to see a true win rate. There have been a ton of posts about this on 2p2 forums over the years and its true that you will need a huge sample size to get close to seeing your true win rate..

This also points out a small fact that its all about correct decisions, not about where your graph goes in the next 2k, 5k, 10k hands..   over time correct decisions = profit.

Poker online is a LONG TERM GAME. dont forget it. Its a grind. Make it fun and have some goals..

Will post again at 10k hands.



x_ROSH125_x said...

Seriously I would look at 200k Hands as a good sample and probably 500k as a true reflection of your win rate

Ryverrat said...

Yeah, I think I agree with you..

Interesting to see how this would transfer to live play. its feasible to play 200k hands in one year online as a serious player but how long would this take in live play.

years and years im guessing.. does this equate to most live players never really seeing the true win rate?

x_ROSH125_x said...

Historically I don't think most players cared about any of these modern stats.

Doyle and Amarillo Slim just judged the size of the bag of swag that they walked out with out of one of those underground games.

They then tried to dodge all the hijackers that were waiting outside with guns to rob them.

Doyle's 60+ yrs live experience is most probably replicated in 1-2yrs hard online grinding.

I personally don't care too much over my winrate even though I know it and dont care at all for EV, red lines, blues line, yellow lines etc.

I spend a lot of time on the actual playing stats by position of my villains, like how much does x 3bet from MP etc etc and how can I exploit that, which I believe is far more important.

The most important factor for me is 'did I play that hand to the best of my ability given the information available to me'? and I analyse all the big hands and go over my errors.

There are apps for collating your live hand data but as u say collecting a useful sample is tough


Watch this said...

You can't compare online poker to life poker. Playing the same amount of time 10+ multitables online gives me 10x more experience.

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