Bet Sizing Errors

I qualified my way into FTOP event#15, finishing 811 out of 1700 entries. Nothing exciting, it was a 6max tourny and I made a few plays that sucked tbh. My MTT game is not at its best at the moment and I think thats due to the aggressive nature of playing cash tables. I plan to make a bigger effort in the next FTOP.

Back to the topic of the title. Bet sizing is an aspect that I think a lot of people dont fully grasp. This includes me. Its blindingly obvious to see when you look back at a hand but when you are playing 2-4 tables this can be overlooked when you have just a few seconds to make the decision.

Example....
$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
3 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

BTN		($99.80)
Hero		($134.50)
BB		($35.05)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 3 players) Hero is SB

BTN raises to $1, Hero raises to $3.25, 1 fold, BTN calls $2.25

Flop: ($7, 2 players)
Hero bets $4, BTN calls $4

Turn: ($15, 2 players)
Hero bets $11, BTN calls $11

River: ($37, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $20, Hero calls $20

Final Pot: $77
BTN shows:
Hero shows:

Hero wins $75 ( won +$36.75 )
BTN lost -$38.25


Nice win, BUT, this could have been for a lot more of his stack. Ill explain. We have been 6 handed and villain was playing a whopping 80/49/4. For my friends that are reading this that are unsure of the numbers, he is playing 80% of his cards preflop and raising over half of them. The range of an 80% player is almost any two cards (ATC). He had stacked me once with my AK vs AQ all in on an A high board and he turned the Q and also pushed me off a lot of pots so was probably up around 2 buyins of my money. Since then he had been slowly losing his near $200 stack to other players on the table and I had clawed back around $34, we were now 3 handed.

His min bet on the button meant nothing special. 3 handed against him with AJs i am almost always ahead. I raise to isolate $3.25 even though im out of position. An ok flop for me. Against ANYONE ELSE this would have been very tricky. Straight draws and flush draws would make up a huge part of an average players range here.

I make my mistake, I bet too small.. This is bad in 2 ways, If he does have a draw Ive bet just over half the pot and we are 200BB deep. the turn bet of $11 into a $15 is o but could have been a higher % of the pot against this reckless player. The flush scare card comes up and I make another mistake. If I am going to call a bet then I should be raising. I called because he had been making some horrendous river bluffs so there was a good chance I was ahead. $20 into $57.

So lets redo the bet sizing and see where we come out.
pf bet of $3.25 is ok.
Flop - pot size ($7.2)
bet $6 villain calls

Turn - pot size ($19.2)
bet $16 villain calls

River - pot size ($51.2)
I bet $40 villian calls

Final pot $131.2 this is $56 (112 big blinds) more than original scenario. Even if it had played the same way and I checked and he bet $20 the pot is still $92, still $17 more (34 big blinds) more than I got. Against this type of player, the player that cannot lay down a hand I should have followed a better line than I did.

Lesson learned. % of pot is exponential over 3 streets of betting. Get more in the pot while you are ahead. I dont like leaving money on the table dammit.

Update & the Introduction of the Amoeba.

Bankroll at $1860. I plan to move up to .50/1 at $2000 and drop back down when if my balance gets to $1500. This is all moving at a good pace.

I am playing .25/.50 but had 1 table of .50/1 when this hand comes up. Villain is a bad player. I had seen him call down with A high an orbit ago to a big bet.

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG		($40.30)
UTG+1		($58.55)
CO		($45.75)
BTN		($150.70)
Hero		($145.50)
BB		($91.30)

Pre-flop: ($1.5, 6 players) Hero is SB

UTG calls $1, 3 folds, Hero raises to $5.5, 1 fold, UTG calls $4.5

Flop: ($12, 2 players)
Hero bets $8, UTG calls $8
(This call could mean anything from him. Any Q/7/6, club draw, any pair.)

Turn: ($28, 2 players)
Hero bets $26, UTG goes all-in $26.8, Hero calls $0.8
(Great card for me as most of the time it cannot help him. He is short stacked with only a pot sized amount left. I cant give him a free card so i put him all in)

River: ($81.6, 2 players)

Final Pot: $81.60
Hero shows:
UTG shows:
(A9o ??? he is an Amoeba. A single celled organism. A level 1 monkey. Ty sir, for your donation to my bankroll)

Hero wins $78.1 ( won +$37.8 )
UTG lost -$40.30



I dont always play well.... here's a speculative hand where I got lucky. His bet sizing in this hand shows the dangers of small betting.

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

Hero		($47.25)
CO		($118.28)
BTN		($79.75)
SB		($84.13)
BB		($63.80)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 5 players) Hero is UTG

Hero raises to $2, CO calls $2, 2 folds, BB calls $1.5

Flop: ($6.25, 3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3.5, CO raises to $7, BB folds, Hero calls $3.5
(no reads on this player so far. Im not folding to a late position min raise. This doesnt have to mean an Ace)

Turn: ($20.25, 2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $7, Hero calls $7
(J8/68 just hit the straight but unlikely. His bet still looks weak and I still maybe ahead)

River: ($34.25, 2 players)
Hero bets $22, CO calls $22
(Boom! hmm.. any 8,KQ,AA im losing to. I make a bet where I am commited if he raises)

Final Pot: $78.25
Hero shows:
CO shows:

Hero wins $74.75 ( won +$36.75 )
BB lost -$2.00
CO lost -$38.00

This hand was played very poorly by me. My thought process was screwed by his minimum betting. I also think he played the hand bad aswell. What is the better play ? To reraise the min bet on the flop and fold to a rereraise ? Or call the flop minraise and raise the Turn to fold to a push ? I exerted no pressure on this hand and found no information. I wasnt looking to improve the hand with a J or an 8 on the river. I wanted a showdown. I was out of position to a guy with no reads and I got lucky.

Analysis is key to spotting your weaknesses. Self criticism is good and higlighting both good and bad plays help me focus on trying to make the right decisions over time.

I may be totally wrong on both hands above and thats why I post them so you clever poker minds can pick them apart and offer different views and angles to the hands.

Any thoughts ?

I need some input..

AP allows a 200BB buy in. Whats my next move when the bankroll reaches $2000 ?

Do I -

1) stay at .25/.50 and start buying in for 200BB ($100)

2) move up to .50/$1 and buy in for 100BB ($100)


The skill level is SO bad at .25/.50 and the extra cash on the table can be useful to increase the winrate yet with my eye on climbing the ladder of games until I find a challenging level should I stick with the orignal plan and buy in 100BB at .50/$1 ?

Any thoughts ?


Bankroll now $1700 just over 7000 hands.

Weekend update & hand analysis

I didnt get to play too much at the weekend. As you may recall I deposited $500 into AP on the 14th Jan with my first rakeback deal of 30%.

Bankroll is currently $1619. Not bad for 4 weeks playing mainly .25/.50. I generally play between 2-4 tables and sometimes have a .50/1 table included. I have been very selective on the .50/1 tables and thats shown in my winrate so far. Btw this winrate is unsustainable and will fall inline once I get more hands in at that level.

My graph has a nice trend line. This will be my comfort zone for now and I will stay like this until I reach $2000 then I will take a proper shot at .50/1








Hand1
I have a few hands to discuss. In the first hand UTG is Tighty McNuts and very positionally aware. His UTG raise screams of AA/KK/AKs



$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG		($100.15)
UTG+1		($21.40)
Hero		($61.20)
BTN		($19.00)
SB		($47.17)
BB		($19.50)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 6 players) Hero is CO

UTG raises to $2, 1 fold, Hero calls $2, 3 folds
(normally i would reraise here with a big pair but he is a decent player and I would have to fold if he shoved all in. I call and hope to set mine or atleast evaluate on a scary board)

Flop: ($4.75, 2 players)
UTG bets $3, Hero raises to $8, UTG raises to $23, Hero calls $15
(Bingo! He bets out as any good player would. I reraise a medium amount hoping to look a little weak. Im aware of the potential flush draw. I could and probably should have just pushed but that may show an obvious set, so I called to maybe show I was drawing to the flush.)

Turn: ($50.75, 2 players)
UTG bets $37, Hero goes all-in $36.2
(QQ just hit a set but also AA and KK would play this way. It also misses my fake flush draw. This is an easy call.)

River: ($123.95, 2 players)

Final Pot: $123.15
UTG shows:
Hero shows:

UTG wins $0.8 ( lost -$61.2 )
Hero wins $119.65 ( won +$58.45 )

A set up hand really but as I mentioned before a reraise pf by me and I would have had to lay it down to a shove. Any thoughts on this ?

Hand 2

UTG is somewhat tight passive and BB is the Loose/aggro playing 70/25/2


$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

UTG		($274.61)
CO		($107.45)
BTN		($100.90)
Hero		($48.50)
BB		($17.98)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 5 players) Hero is SB

UTG raises to $2, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.75, BB raises to $4, UTG calls $2, Hero raises to $17, BB goes all-in $17.98, UTG folds, Hero calls $0.98

(I cant remember why I just flat called. I should have raised this as im only behind AA/KK and he has a large stack. BB corrected my mistake by min reraising. This is such a bad play but helped me in a huge way. The call by UTG told me he didnt have a premium pair. JJ+ would have reraised for sure, out of position against a min reraiser and 2 opponents. I put him on maybe AK badly played or a medium/low pocket pair. Thinking I am ahead of UTG and knowing BB has a huge range as always I raise and aggro monkey calls.)



Flop: ($43.96, 2 players)

Turn: ($43.96, 2 players)

River: ($43.96, 2 players)

Final Pot: $39.96
Hero shows:
BB shows:

Hero wins $38.01 ( won +$20.03 )
BB lost -$21.98
UTG lost -$4.00


AQ is a killer hand. Tough to play OOP and easy to lose a stack to AK. BB's min raise sucked. For anyone that reads this there are not many times minraising is a good play. I see it soo much at the lower levels. dont play scared. Min raising does not apply pressure. There are times when this is effective but thats for another post.


Haha if he had flipped AA this post then I may have praised him for inducing a push but his range was so large that AA was a very small part of that and im ahead more times than not with QQ.