How many hands to see true winrate

What a difference a few thousand hands make. So firstly apologies for not playing the amount expected. Ive been travelling a little and am involved in a new start up company. but thats boring so....

Im just short of my first 10k hands at 25nl. As you may remember I jumped back in, started losing, read Verneers crushing the micros, reread my own how to beat 50nl and this produced a turnaroud.

Just after the 4k mark is where i stopped and looked at my game. You can see at the moment I am winning at 2.77 bb/100. Whilst not good that cant really be a true reflection of what has happened. Take a look at the numbers from my last 4k hands....

Again, 16.25 bb/100 is not accurate. I know any regular readers (if they still poke around here) will know this but for the aspiring low level online player this is a good example of a fact that you need 10's of thousands of hands to see a true win rate. There have been a ton of posts about this on 2p2 forums over the years and its true that you will need a huge sample size to get close to seeing your true win rate..

This also points out a small fact that its all about correct decisions, not about where your graph goes in the next 2k, 5k, 10k hands..   over time correct decisions = profit.

Poker online is a LONG TERM GAME. dont forget it. Its a grind. Make it fun and have some goals..

Will post again at 10k hands.

Ryverrat

There are plenty of fish left in this ocean

Coming back to poker a concern was that the fish numbers had dwindled and that the remaining players were all nitty regs. Well I don't think that is true is it. Just take a look at my screenshot. I am using Veneers HUD setup as shown on the left. Just looking at the basics vpip/fr/af numbers though and you'll see what I mean.

4000 hands

Well im on my way hopefully back up the ladder. I had an interesting first 4000 hands.

I havent played much poker this year, i delved back into Omaha and got crushed earlier in the year but no real play with NL holdem and it shows.

My first 2000 hands were bad. I had been watching a lot of poker on late night TV and being out of the game this had a big influence on me as i started playing online again. Around this 2000 hand mark, even though it was a small sample size I felt like I needed some guidance. I remember a couple of years back Verneers crushing the micros series on cardrunners and I knew he also put something on 2p2 forums so I looked it up.

Moving up through uNL in 2010

I read this over a couple of days and put in another 2000 hands. Even though, again this is a small sample size, and as you can see from the graph my EV line is not really trending upwards I still feel like I have already changed my game to a winning style. Verneer is a legend and he writes so well. If any reader is struggling with 25nl the link above is your bible.

Im looking forward to the next 6k hands to do a full review. I am in between jobs at the moment so I can get a ton of time playing.

Ill be putting some interesting hands up here in the next few days.

Keep watching and let me know if you are reading.. it makes me write better :)

Come on in, the water is still warm...

I am feeling the lure of poker again. I have had a lot of time out from playing due to work and family commitments but with a recent change of job I am finding myself with quite a bit of downtime at home. I keep hearing the knock of poker at my door and think I should step back in the water to see if it still warm.

I am expecting that things are a lot harder. I expect there to be a lot less fish around but I like the sound of a challenge. Also, I havent read up on the legal battle recently in the US in regards to poker but I was always under the impression that one day in the near future the big guns such as Harrahs would work out a way to legalise and tax poker in the US. Even if this doesn't happen poker is still ripe in Europe.

So.. Im gonna multitable 25nl with a $500 bankroll. I have downloaded the Holdem Manager 2 trial (seems a lot more intuitive than HEM which I loved) and will be 4-8 tabling. I have reread my posts on how to beat 50nl and will be playing basic, positional, tight aggressive poker. Avoiding marginal situations where possible and hunting down fish by moving tables and not staying static.

My main goal to start is to find out if i can still play winning poker. I will book 10k hands a complete a full review. In the meantime I will start putting some interesting hands and situations on here alongside 2p2 forums.

Im not sure anyone will read this for a while but hopefully momentum will build and I can lead some interesting discussion and learn from or advise the people that come by. Writing a blog before was fun, helped keep me focused and made me some good contacts. Fingers crossed it will all go that way again.

Ryverrat

Im a lurker on my own blog !

Im still here... With my current job I dont get to play much but man when I do I seem to be hitting the sweet spot. My $100 starting bankroll is now $1270. The graph above shows my cash games year to date. 36,000 hands is not a lot and I wish I could play some more.

Im now mixing things up between 50nl and 100nl only playing 200-300 hands at a time. Even though this is not by choice it does affect my play. Im focused, very focused for the 30-60mins i play. It seems that it doesnt give enough time for the other players to adapt to me joining a table and I can pinpoint the fish (yes still fish at 100nl) very quickly.

Ill crawl back into my box for now.. If anyone wants any help with 10nl-50nl send me a message or pm me on 2p2 forums.

Ryverrat

to you sir, im on a draw !

Villain was a 24/20/4.3 I sometimes 3bet here, mainly against regs but I elected to call and see a flop.

Obviously a great flop, but adding to this is a potential flush draw. I thought in the back of my mind if I get aggro here I likely get paid off from his pocket pairs but I fold out a lot of broadway and suited connector hands. The chance of a flush coming by the river is 2:1 against. so 2 times out of 3 I may be able to get some more cash here with his aggro style. A diamond may slow him down, other higher cards may help him bluff or even hit a pair.
I considered min reraising the turn but I think that looks too strong. I was also happy with my story of a draw and a flush draw is now 4:1 against.

I didnt expect the river shove but I guess thats what you find when aggro monkey is out of position. I expected to see a 2 pair hand atleast.

Im loving being back at 50nl.

$0.25/0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash Games, 6 Players

Hand Converter by the Pokerhand.org community

Board:

BB: $15.00

UTG: $73.64

UTG+1: $15.00

CO: $50.00

Button: $51.50

SB: $60.79

 

Dealt to: Button

Pre-flop:

(1 folds)
CO raises to $1.50
Button calls $1.50
(2 folds)

Flop:($3,75) (3 Players)

CO bets $2.85
Button calls $2.85

Turn: ($9,45) (3 Players)

CO bets $6.25
Button calls $6.25

River: ($21,95) (3 Players)

CO raises to $39.40
Button calls $39.40

Results:

CO Showed

Button Showed

Button wins $98.75

Time to step up

10nl

25nl

With my original $100 bankroll I have made some money via tournaments and have beaten 10nl and 25nl enough to now start taking shots at 50nl. Bankroll is now $780.

I havent had many 'interesting' situations at 10nl and 25nl. To win at these levels I have been jumping from table to table seeking out the fish and not butting heads with the regs wherever I can avoid it.

50nl should show a different game if I remember from the last time I climbed this ladder. I can start adding to the blog these situations as I have struggled to find many at the lower levels.

Keep an eye on here. I will be posting a little more regular from now.

Fish Frenzy

Ive been quiet as of late.. to be honest poker has taken a back burner as my recently single lifestyle has been a little successful if you get my meaning. Trying to juggle 3 or 4 girls has left my evenings playing poker non existent. For April ive only played 3k hands but OMG they have been good. The recent changes in the online poker world (I really dont need to explain this right ?) have turned the aquarium into a frenzy of terrible players donking off their money. checkout the graph for April...

And my year to date graph

The frenzy will continue for a while. For anyone struggling with 10nl or 25nl and would like to chat leave a message here or send me an email.

With the restrictions at work I don't really have time to write hand analysis posts at present but i'm working on a way around this.

Quick update but thats all your getting at the moment.. its either that or details of my $ex life :) you choose...

Ryverrat

Year to date update.

I still honestly think ive cracked the micros.. Im sort of reluctant to put too much detail on here at the moment. I think once i move to 50nl I will make a post on exactly how i am doing this. The basics lie in table selection, moving around a lot and not playing big pots vs the regs.

25nl is full of more fish than 10nl. There are so many grinders at 10nl. These grinders are unimaginative and very face up.

I have to travel to Poland this week so I havent had time to review and talk about any hands recently. I will do this soon..

Bad Beat of Life

Things in life for me are never all good or never all bad. There seems to always be this yin yang situation with me.

I have suffered the worst bad beat of my life so far. My wife woke up a few days after Christmas and decided she had no feelings for me anymore and has asked to seperate. She moved out this week taking my little 2 year old boy with her. I still get to see him but not as much as before and his future is now not so rosey. I'm not going to pour my heart out on a poker blog but there is some relevance.

The rest of my life is on fire. I am winning at poker, both online and live. Nothing large but its consistant. I have turned my $100 into $400 in just under 2 months of 10nl and small amount of 25nl. My job, i love it. My world is great. Yin Yang. Extreme volatility with an underlying flat trend.

Going forward this will mean more poker. Granted I will be out drinking and getting involved in as many women as possible but it also means I will not be doing 'relationship stuff' like watching stupid sitcoms and walking around shopping centres. I will be able to put in more hours at the virtual felt. Yin .... fkin... Yang !

0 to Hero - killing it..

My second post now enticing the doomswitch by saying that I honestly believe I have cracked 10nl. Check this out..

Almost a 10 buy in run. I feel a lot more sharper after analysing the first 10k hands. I have made a few adjustments and I am even more so moving around tables to find the juiciest fish and not banging heads with the regs.

Next week will see me put a bit more volume in and I will start to analyse a few good hand histories.

small BOOM!!

I had a great weekend for poker. I made 5 buyins at $10nl and entered an on demand tourny for $2. Haha big bucks !! well 189 people entered

Good for the bankroll and great for the confidence.

Will still complete the next 10k hands at 10nl but assuming Im beating 10nl I will have the bankroll to take a few shots at 25nl.

Analysis of 10k hands

Ive run a few questions through HEM in the hope of spotting a few leaks in my game. Here's what I have found...

Firstly the graph.

The overview with positional stats

Overall happy with my positional stats. Im very comfortable with the $vpip difference in my early vs late position. the 17/12 vpip/pfr could maybe be a bit tighter but I dont think that is where I am losing money.

All Pocket Pairs

Seems ok. Not sure how much I should be winning with my overall pp catagory. Maybe a question for 2p2 forums.

Pocket Pairs 22-55

This seems to be a problem. I remember this being a problem when I used to play. I may look to cut them out completely or only multiway in position. The big leak as you can see is the Big Blind. I will analyse those hands and see if there is an obvious leak or just a few unlucky hands.

Suited Connectors

Seems like I am doing ok on playing or rather so NOT playing suited connectors. I try to only play these multiway.

Called Button Raise when I am in Big Blind

Interesting. In my opinion I should only be reraising or folding vs a button steal. I dont want ot be playing out of position and If my hand cannot raise then put it in the bin. I will change this for my next 10k hands and see..

Does anyone have any other questions they analyse their database with ? I would like to hear them.

Pit Stop...

Been away on the slopes of France, banging myself around on my snowboard. I haven't put much time to playing poker over the past few weeks. Im still on the uptrend and will start to do some good analysis of hands which I will put on here.

In the meantime subscribe yourself to Verneer's $200 - $10,000 post on 2p2. Once he hits this he will be giving it all away to charity.. Top top man


How can anyone lose at 10nl with this type of play !!

Full Tilt Poker, $0.05/0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash Games, 6 Players

Hand Converter by the Pokerhand.org community

Board:

UTG: $15.04

UTG+1: $10

CO: $10.15

Button: $9.57

SB: $15.30

BB: $11.66

 

Dealt to: BB

Pre-flop:

Button raises to $.30, (1 folds), BB raises to $1.70, Button calls $1.40,

Flop:($3.55) (5 Players)

BB checks, Button bets $.50, BB raises to $2.60, Button raises to $7.87 and is all-in, BB calls $5.27,

Turn: ($19.29) (5 Players)

River: ($19.29) (5 Players)

Results:

Button Showed

BB Showed

BB wins $18.19