Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Holdem Manager 1 Pokertracker 0

Ive been a long time fan of pokertracker. I see the software as a big brother, guiding me through the world of online poker, highlighting fish and making my life a lot easier when multitabling.

Then along came Holdem Manager.

I must say I was dubious at first but this lasted all of 10 mins. Once I worked out the differences and adjusted the layout of the HUD I instantly felt way more comfortable than I ever have with PT. Ive imported all my hand histories from PT and am now tweaking all the information I can handle in HEM.

If you havent tried this great piece of software go give the trial version a run.

Thursday, December 4, 2008

Sticky situation....

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
AbsolutePoker
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:
UTG ($43.95)
UTG+1 ($33.95)
Hero (CO) ($98.50)
BTN ($109.50)
SB ($44.45)
BB ($217.90)


Pre-flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is CO

UTG raises to $3.50, UTG+1 calls $3.50, Hero raises to $11, 1 fold, SB calls $10.50, 1 fold, UTG calls $7.50, UTG+1 calls $7.50

Flop: ($45, 4 players)
SB checks, UTG goes all-in $32.95, UTG+1 goes all-in $22.95, $32.95 to Hero ($87.5)?

No reads

There is still a player yet to act with $33.45

Are we beat here or are we getting enough odds to call. We are getting over 3:1 with another potential caller that could make 4:1

Thoughts ?

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

November Result and Ryverrat the Superuser...





Had a good November. With Rakeback and bonus I made around $1000 and have comfortably included $100nl in my game.

Bankroll is now $3000 and building nicely back up again. 8695 hands was unfortunately just shy of the 10k I planned. Will try to catch up in December.

I saw the first signs of paranoia on the AP tables last night. I must be a superuser!!!


RLUCACIU wins (75c chips).
RLUCACIU: so did you guys know that ub had employees cheat people
RLUCACIU: out of their money
RYVERRAT: lol
RLUCACIU: they had this software that would show them what other ppl
RLUCACIU: had
RYVERRAT: titanic sunk aswell
RLUCACIU: lol
<<>>
RLUCACIU wins (95c chips).
RLUCACIU: I bet all of you have that software
RYVERRAT: rofl
RLUCACIU: your names sound pretty shady
<<>>
RYVERRAT wins ($1.75 chips).
RLUCACIU: totally like ub employees would name their accounts
<<>>
WESD0G wins ($1.25 chips).
<<>>
WESD0G wins ($1.20 chips).
<<>>
RYVERRAT: superuser !!!
RYVERRAT wins ($39.10) with (Full house, queens full of threes).

He upped and left.

Monday, December 1, 2008

60 Minutes Poker

For any of those that missed the 60 minutes episode yesterday here is the link.

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=4639069n

To be honest I dont think it was as bad as expected. Don't get me wrong, there was never going to be any upside in a credible news show investigating Absolute Poker and Ultimate Bet scandals, but I feel the 15 mins exposure it got was a small kick in the shin rather than the nail in the coffin.

After watching this I am left with these headlines :-

Potripper superuser account and the great work on the online community
Russ Hamilton behind UB scam and still not charged with any misconduct or fraud
That all sites may have cheating software.
Sites will never be safe outside of US jurisdiction
The building where the servers are held look very nondescript.

I dont see that stopping a large percentage of players, current or new, to wager their money online. I think this one will be swept under the carpet and that the newly branded CEREUS merger of UB and AP will make this while thing disappear in the foreseeable future.

Anyone feel any different ?

Friday, November 28, 2008

How to beat 50NL 6Max Part 3

continues from previous post.



Neutral EV/Marginal Situations

These situations occur when you are making a tough decision that is not clear cut and could go either way. Calling a river bet that would lead to an EV of around zero. The outcome is the same as folding. The difference in your winrate over time will be negligable. By calling these marginal situations will only increase your volatility and maybe change your percieved table image at the time. Dont chase small ev situations at this level, keep the volatility low and get our money in when you are in a clearly +ev situation. Concentrate more on how to extract the most money with your +ev situations not the tough decision hands. My game is about easy decisions.


Avoiding the Regulars for now

Now I am not saying run for the hills if you see a regular player at your table. They are just human and just because they are a reg that doesnt mean they are better than you. The fact is though at 50nl there are so many fish that you dont need to battle it out with a reg for 2bb/100 when you have players that you can extract 10+bb/100. It makes no sens at 50nl to be sitting at a table with 4 regs +1 fish. Unless the fish is deepstacked and to your immediate right, then up and leave. There will be 20+ other tables with which to feed on.

I think the next evolution of poker will be to learn how to play back at the regs. Learning how to add on another 2bb/100 by including the regs that you feed on. But this is not needed at 50nl to make money.

If you are to play against any regs just know they are not calling stations and will let you know when you are beat. Regulars are normally sold multitablers and will not bluff often. Steal from them with half pot bets and fold to any aggro. Pick on the weak, table select well and dont sit and lose value with a table full of regs.


Stealing Blinds

There are a lot of players unaware of the blind steal and also a lot of regulars that will automatically fold to a blind steal. This provides a lot of inocme over the course of thousands of hands. If you are sitting on the button and the blinds are tight players then bet. On the next orbit, if you are folded to, bet again. Keep doing this until they play back at you. Put them off their game and become a thorn in their side. This will make them frustrated and they will start to play pots with you when they are out of position. This also can achieve great pay offs when you hit a large hand on the button.

Even if called a continuation bet (cbet) will normally take the pot down. Just be aware of coordinated boards and players calling range. You can always wait until next orbit if its marginal.

Obviously the worst type of player to steal from is the Loose Aggressive player (LAG). Keep this one low on the steal frequency and maybe move table if LAGs on the left and no LAG's on your right.

Blind stealing is essential for a decent winrate.


Session Review

At the end of each session, spare yourself around 10 mins to go over some highlights of your play. Use PT to find the top 3-5 hands of both wins and losses. Replay them and see if you could have done anything different. Were you ahead when the money went in ? Did you apply the right pressure and could you have found out you were beat earlier in the hand.

The winning hands are just as important here as you may have left money on the table. Ask yourself was the bet sizing correct. Could you have extracted more $?

Give yourself some time to go over these hands and anything you are unsure of ask someone. Use forums like twoplustwo, ask some poker buddies or even send an email to me and Ill give you my opinion. There is no downside to asking someone if you could have played it differently.


As i said earlier, this is pretty much how I have beat 50nl over this year. Its not about playing fancy. Its about playing solid poker and creating situations with easy decisions. 50nl is not aggressive and has a lot of dead money floating around. Play more hands in position, control the bet sizing and stay away from marginal decisions and you should be making some relatively easy money.

Hope that helps someone.

Feel free to donate :)

Ryverrat.









Thursday, November 27, 2008

How To Beat 50NL 6Max Part 2

... Continues from previous post.

Taking Notes

I take a lot of short notes on players. Im not writing full descriptions and I'm not taking down everything I see. I'm keeping it short and sweet.

Im looking for repeating actions in common situations. I am specifically noting the following.

PreFlop
Are they positionally aware?
Tight or Loose utg/utg+1 range?
Do they steal blinds with any two cards?
3bet calling range?
What does their all in pf range include?
Defends blinds with any two cards ?
Do they open limp?

Flop
Do they lead out of position (OOP) with a sets?
Do they lead OOP with flush draws?
Do they overbet/push with flush draws?
Do they fold to bets no matter what size, ie min bet?

Turn
2nd barrell bluffs ?
do they check/raise strong hands after leading flop?

River
Can they bluff missed draws?
what size % bet of pot do they call with medium hands?

Other
Do they use autofold?
Do they Tilt easy?
Timing tells?

There may seem a lot of information here but I will only have 2 or 3 confirmed notes per player. These can be added to the notes field very quickly if using a shorthand. Create the shorthand that you can easily read, there is no set language.

for example
dfnds BB atc
lds flp wth set
clls psb wth f/d on turn
c/r flop wth strng hands
min bet = weak

My number one main goal is to find out how they play their big hands. For me, knowing when they are really strong helps me save a ton of cash when I have a strong hand and can find a fold. I try to find something that has repeated and put a * next to the note to mean I have seen this more than once.

All this is very easy to add to a players notes while playing and very easy to understand when you glance at them.

Position and Starting Hand Selection

At 50nl there is no need to be fancy. When watching CardRunners videos at higher levels the pros are raising hands like KJs UTG and 3betting 88 in mid position. At 50nl a lot of players do not know how to fold and will be calling with a wide range of hands. When you are playing out of position this will get you into some tricky situations on the flop where you have a marginal hand and no idea where you stand.

Most of your profit will come from late position. Basic poker, if you play more hands from late position vs early position you will have the groundings to make a decent winrate. I play reasonably tight UTG. I suggest dropping ALL suited connectors from UTG /UTG +1 and all those marginal hands like KQ, AT etc (more on second best hands later). 50nl is about easy decisions and by controlling the range you play out of position helps you achieve this.

I find raising pocket pairs in any position works. I do sometimes drop 22-44 from my UTG range if at a decent table or if there are a lot of shorties <50bb stacks. As said before, there are a lot of calling stations at 50nl so calling pocket pairs TT and lower for set value in position is preferrable.

Avoiding Second Best Hands

Dangerous hands to me are AQ, AJ, AT, KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, QT. These hand are the trickiest to play imo. Its easy to lay down T9 on a board of KT4 but no so easy if you hold KQ. These types of hands will see you get a decent amount of your chips in only to find you are dominated by AK. Folding these hands to aggression can save you a lot of money over the long run. Dont go broke with Top pair 2nd kicker and try to use some pot control where possible.

Bet Sizing

I am a firm believer in masking your preflop ranges with the same bet sizing. Its is very readable when a player open limps sometimes and open bets other times. I say never open limp. This keeps your game aggressive and your bet sizing doesn't polarize your hand. With the amount of bad players at 50nl and the lack of 3 betting I always open bet $2 (4 x bb).

When 3betting preflop I usually raise around 3 times the players opening bet. 3 betting gets a lot of respect at this level and normally takes down the pot.

Once you have seen the flop, make a plan in your head what you aim to do. Are you willing to get the money in with this hand? Are you going to fold to any aggression ? Are you wanting to get to showdown cheaply ? This will help in sizing your bet to achieve your plan. If your aim is to get it all in, make sure the amount you bet on the flop and turn leave you with a less than pot sized bet for the river. This is not always possible try to be aware of this and check raise if possible to get the money in.

If you find yourself on the river with a stack larger than the current pot, you think you opponent has a decent hand and you think he will call a pot sized bet, then push all in. I find that players willing to call a psb will also call a lot more than that.

If you believe the player has missed the river then I find 1/3 psb works. I would be wary of betting small with bluffs as calling stations are liable to look you up with bottom or mid pair.

One last point on this subject is giving the opponent incorrect odds and not trying to blow them off the hand. Like if you believe the player is drawing to a flush, bet enough to make them call with incorrect odds, dont overbet to make them fold unless the board is really dangerous and they could have other outs. Poker is about the sum of everyones mistakes. Give them the opportunity to make one but be ready to fold if they hit.

to be continued....

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

How To Beat 50NL 6Max Part 1

I promised a while ago to write a post sharing my thoughts on how I have recently beat 50nl. I have played approx 44k hands at this level and have a win rate of 7.5bb/100. Most of this will be basic poker to a lot of readers. This is aimed at the 25nl looking to move up or the losing/breakeven player at 50nl. These are the areas I will cover.

Pokertracker

Bankroll Management

Multitabling

Table Selection

Taking Notes

Position and starting hand selection

Avoiding Second Best Hands

Bet Sizing

Neutral ev/marginal situations

Avoiding the Regs for now

Stealing Blinds

Session Review


PokerTracker and HUD

For those not using Pokertracker I say you are at a fair disadvantage to other players using this tool. This becomes more evident if you play 3 or more tables. I would not be able to comfortably remember who is playing tight aggro, tight passive, loose aggro and loose passive let alone the more interesting numbers that can add to your win rate.

I am still using Pokertracker 2 and use the following information

$VPIP - Voluntarily put money in pot

PFR% - Pre flop raise %

AF - Aggression factor

Cbet% - Continuation bet %

Fold to Cbet%

Reraise Cbet %

Folds SB to steal %

Folds BB to steal %

Aggression on flop, turn and river


PT3 does this in real time. I have both PT2 and PT3 but the site I am playing is not supported by PT3 at present. PT3 also has 3bet% and fold to 3bet% which comes in handy.


Bankroll Management (BRM)

This is where a lot of players fall down. I have yet to go broke with my BRM but you have to be a winning player for this to work. I start with 20 buyins for a level and move up when i have between 20-25 buyins for the next level. If I fall down below 20 buyins for the new level I wont play it.


Example $25nl
Bankroll start $500
Move up to $50nl between $1000 - $1250
Move back to $25nl at $1000


This may seem passive to some but it allows you to really see if you are beating the current level and allows you to ride any variance that you will run into. In the example above you need to make $500 at 25nl. That is 2000 big blinds to make.


Below shows winrate vs hands needed to play.


5bb/100 = 40,000 hands
7.5bb/100 = 26,666 hands
10bb/100 = 20,000 hands


If you are playing on average 3 tables at 7.5bb/100 and putting in around 90 hands per hour per table then that will equal approx 100 hours of play to be able to comfortably move up a level.

You have to be able to put your pride to oneside and step down when necessary. Moving down is part of the game, moving down controls tilt and slows down losses. Managing your bankroll is a fundamental part of climbing the ranks.

I also find that when moving up its easier for me if I dont just dive straight in and fire up 2-4 tables of the new level, but gradually transition through by replacing one of my tables with the new level and replace more as I feel comfortable.

Multitabling

With the idea of playing a semi tight aggressive style, you can comfortably play more than 1 table. The amount of tables you can play will be down to personal preference. I find that I can comfortably play 4 tables and feel in full control, not rushed. I have friends that can only play 1 table and ones that can play 12+. Start with 1 or 2, play until you are comfortable and then add another. Repeat this until you are in your comfort zone.

Multitabling helps with the boredom factor of single tabling. This will keep you playing tight and help steer clear of what I will call boredom hands like KJo, A6o etc.


Table Selection

Hunt down bad players. You should as you are playing, be adding bad players to your friends/buddy list. When you next log in open up this list and add your name to the waiting list of all bad players if they are still at your current level. When a seat appears evaluate the position you have got. Where are the loose players, where are the tight players. You should be looking for optimal seats with the loose bad players to your right and the tightish players to your left. If the seat has villains the wrong sides, up and move. There is always a better seat at these levels and dont by shy to sit out and move. This also means when the fish up and moves and the table dynaics change.

With there are no fish to chase the obvious statistic in the table selection screen in most lobby's is the % of players seeing flops (%psf). The higher the better, dont waste your time with the low %psf tables, you want to be actively hunting the bad players and the tighter bad players dont return the same profit as the loose bad players. The problem here is that every other player sees this information in the lobby so you will see many tables with high %psf with waiting lists.

Another idea I had a while back is spotting fish by donkey stacks. Look for those tables with players sitting with 1/2 stacks, 40-70 big blinds. These could be potential unspotted fish.

I say again, dont be stuck on a table when the fish leave. I see so many players sitting at tables with 3-4 regs where there are so many other fishy tables to play. The main bulk of your money will not come from the regs. Sit out, stand up and fnd another table. This is not bad etiquette, this is bankroll building.

Part 2 soon.....

Monday, November 24, 2008

3043 BigBlinds per 100

I didnt get many hands in this weekend but the ones I did were quality. I was heading out for dinner Saturday night and was waiting on the missus to finish her getting ready routine. I had about 10 mins to squeeze some hands in. I fired up 5 tables and played a couple of orbits. On 1 table (Jasper, see pokertracker screenshot below) I made 150 big blinds and added a juicy fish to my buddy list. 3043 bb/100 haha.

So the new bankroll now sits at $2,787 giving me a nice $726 profit for Nov so far + rakeback to be added. Not bad for approx 6k hands. I am playing a mix of $100nl and $50nl. As a repeat of the beginning of this year I will keep this level until I either drop to $2000 then $50nl only or increase to $5000 then I can add $200nl.







For anyone interested in matters outside of my bankroll building I will be having a baby, eta end of January. The preperation for his entry into this world has taken up a LOT of my spare time and thus reduced my hands per month. I can easily start rambling how happy, proud, excited etc I am at the thought if becoming a father but this is a poker blog so I will keep it in the background. We have now got most of the preparation done to the house, renovating, decorating and furnishing and this should be finished by the end of this week. Then I can settle back into the seat in front of my screens and cast the fishing rod out into the well stocked poker waters a lot more than I have been able to recently.

Lets see how long this heater lasts....

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Giving A Free Card

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Hero $47.00

UTG+1 $97.50

CO $93.19

BTN $50.71

SB $68.65

BB $ 22.95

Big Blind was definately the fish at the table. 50/12/1


Pre-flop: ($0.75, 6 players) Hero is UTG

Hero raises to $2, 4 folds, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.25, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

( I elect to check. My thoughts... This player has leading when he hits. With 2 Hearts on the table I am sure he bets out here with an Ace so I assign small chance of this. There is a small chance of a flush draw here. I have the Ah so making this a little less likely. If I bet here I fold out all the hands that I want to stay and catch up. His call pre flop says a pocket pair or 2 high cards. I check in the hope he can catch up. My plan is if a Heart hits then I expect a bet I will reraise then not put a penny more in the pot if I face a reraise or a call. With around a 1 in 6 chance of a Heart, I check.)

Turn: ($4.25, 2 players)
BB bets $2, Hero raises to $5, BB raises to $10, Hero raises to $34.25, BB goes all-in $10.95

(A possible perfect card. He leads confirming my 2 high card thought. I beat KJ,QJ,JT,J9 and am beat by JJ. I cant see any other hand here that he has. All other hands would prob lead the flop with the type of player he is. The min reraise made me stop and think, if we were deep I may have slowed down for a bit of pot control but he was relatively short so pushed him in.)

River: ($59.45, 2 players)

Final Pot: $59.45
BB shows:
Hero shows:

Hero wins $56.65 ( won +$20.40 )
BB lost -$22.95





This is a new line to me. I never give free cards but I think if the situation was right for this. I am in position against a player that leads with good hands. I am confident he has no Ace and a bet from me will fold him. As long I stick to a plan of folding to aggression from a turned or rivered Heart then letting the fishy player catch up should make a decent profit.

Poker is gambling and roulette is a game of skill

Yes read the title again. This is the firm belief of a *cough* well educated person on my trading desk. OMFG !

This is derived from the fact that said person won some money in Vegas this year at the roulette tables and who's family member plays poker both online and live. The other fact said was that online poker must be fixed as their family member says every time a 1 outer is needed to lose a pot it comes up 50% of the time. OMFFG! a 2% chance hitting 50% of the time. But he said it so it must be true. But it must be true because this poker player has been to Vegas and won big tournaments. A little delving showed a $2000 win at the Wynn. HUGE !!!!!!!

Jeez, are you for f*cking real. This person is a very important position in our company and should have atleast the basic understanding of GCSE maths ffs. It baffles me how these people get jobs in finance, in trading, in areas that they should have atleast one bit of mathematical knowledge.

Credit crunch my ar$e, i say the turndown in the stockmarket is due to incompetant fools like this.

Rant over.

Monday, November 17, 2008

A steady climb

I feel back on track in bulding up this bankroll. Im running just under 13bb/100 at $50nl. I need to get some more hands in this month, target still 10k hands a month. I have to pull my finger out.






I need to hit $2500 before I can comfortably play $100nl again. I am currently at $2340. A few more fish at 50nl and I can climb back up again. I did this earlier in the year and looking forward to getting back up there.

Once im there I can then start on my 'how to beat 50NL' post that i promisd. Still small sample size but if you include the hands from earlier in the year i have around 45k hands at this level so that should mean something.

Will look for some interesting hands for my next post.

Happy Mondays.

Thursday, November 13, 2008

UIGEA Finalised

The UIGEA. For anyone that has had their head in the sand for the past few years this is the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act passed early 2007 and which will finally come into effect on January 19th.

This is being done in the final hour before the signing in of a new government. The midnight rulemaking allows for finalising and implementing regulations which do not take effect for 60 days. Thus finalise it now and it will be in place for the new gov't.

What does this mean to the poker player. The UIGEA states that it will be illegal to make any cash movements in or out of 'unlawful' gambling sites. The 'Act' has been very vague in specifiy what these sites will consist of so we can assume the Fed and the banks will be over cautious and engage in "overblocking". Stopping ALL suspect transactions. This has other implications as you can imagine. This is also a huge burden for the financial system.

I see a few things happening, and these are just my thoughts, right or wrong so dont flame me for thinking out loud.

Firstly, the worry about safe funds will be priority. I see US players cashing out of sites from now and Jan 19th. There could be a huge increase in outflows from the main US sites. To cash out after this will mean risk of losing your cash. The sites cannot wire transfer and any cheque sent could be refused by your bank.

With the money being sucked out of the system there could be less play for a while. Im sure there will be other ways around it using 3rd party offshore payment vehicles eg Neteller but this is still risky and the casual player will not go to such efforts to deposit onto the sites. Bad news for renewable fish levels.

As an upside thought this could create an increase in reload bonuses from the sites. If a site needs to raise cash then offer a regular deposit bounus. I see Absolute Poker offer around 8 reload bonuses a month at the moment. These are reload bonuses not first deposit bonuses.

I think for the first few months there will be a lot of bad players online. The good players would have pulled most of their cash out and the bad players wouldnt have noticed the law had finalised. They will have stuck funds and will donk them off. After a while the good players will have the cash and the fish will not deposit.

This is all bad news for the US player base, the majority of online play. It maybe that the sites will shift their focus to Europe and Asia where there is no legislation stopping us play. We may see more tournaments schedules appearing in the European time zone etc. It may mean that some sites will stop accepting US customers.

The bottom line though this is a big negative impact on the poker landscape. Lets cross our fingers and hope that Mr Obama will come in and as per the Congressional Review Act 1996, reverse these last minute regulations. This is possible as the act states that any act finalised in the previous 60 days are legally considered to have taken place on the 15th day of the next congress.

Anyone have any more thoughts on this ?



[UIGEA] Treasury, Fed Issue Final Rule on Unlawful Internet Gambling (11/12/08)

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

My biggest hand online.

First of all I am a full believer in good bankroll management. You WILL go busto if you dont adhere to good rules when it comes to moving up and down.

Now I have an old account which I play now and then on FullTilt. I have no rakeback and only use this for small tournaments which I sometimes run alongside my bankroll building at AP. This is play money to me and has no inclusion in my profit numbers.

I had no access to my pc so I fired Mrs Ryverrat's laptop for a little cash play and being only a 15" screen didnt want to play more than 2 tables. Full Tilt was already installed from years back so I opened up the lobby and thought to myself, if I am only playing 1 table I can concentrate a lot more on reads and specific players tendancies. Lets try higher....

I opened up a $1/$2 table and bought in for 100bb. I noticed a lot of cash on the table and after a few rounds saw that I had joined a $1/$2 (deep) table. The guy to my right was heavy stacked so I upped mine to 200bb just in case.

The very next hand....
http://weaktight.com/510617

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
FullTiltPoker
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:
UTG ($358.55)
UTG+1 ($400.00)
CO ($584.50)
BTN ($876.95)
Hero ($390.05)
BB ($225.00)


Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is SB

1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $7, 2 folds, Hero raises to $23, 1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $59, Hero calls $36

Flop: ($120, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $55, Hero raises to $110, UTG+1 calls $55

Turn: ($340, 2 players)
Hero goes all-in $221.05, UTG+1 calls $221.05

River: ($782.10, 2 players)

Final Pot: $782.10
Hero shows:
UTG+1 shows:

Hero wins $779.10 ( won +$389.05 )
UTG+1 lost -$390.05


Not knowing the players at this level I want to analyse this a little better. I can be looked at KK vs AA, boring shut up and move on. But we are 200bb deep. I dont normally play deepstack poker.

Preflop UTG+1 bets, I 3 bet, and he 4 bets. Surely AA,KK ? being this deep does anyone do this with AKs or QQ ? If I 5 bet surely I am saying I have AA and there is a chance he will fold here right ? 5 betting = AA 90% of the time against an unknown ? I elected to call.

I think his half pot bet standard here, if I check raise pot size am i screaming QQ, AQ, KQs ? I felt a min raise will look a little fishy here and also set up a nice river bet that not out of proportion to the pot. Was the min raise right?

I was always betting the river here and if he has any Q then so be it as I wouldnt be folding if i let him bet first.

This hand may have been a straightforward play but I am at a higher level than I normally play $50NL or $100nl and im 200bb deep. For anyone that plays these games please comment as I felt a little out of my depth here from what im used to.

Please comment.



funny link of the day

The skydiving mouse
http://www.ebaumsworld.com/video/watch/1058579/

Thursday, November 6, 2008

My Whale

I love my buddy list. If I had the time I would do a comparison of how much money has come just from the list of players on my buddy list. I have 138 players on the list at $50NL and last night I found one of the major ones sitting at one of the tables.

Villain's stats 83/17/11
A quick recap for some new readers this guy plays 83% of his hands, raises 17% pf and has an aggression factor of 11.

I added myself to the waiting list and within 20 seconds a seat appeared but it was to his right. Not ideal but I would try my best from the wrong angle. Acting before a hyper aggro post flop maniac could be painful.

Within 2 orbits I had seen him open push 240bb winning just the blinds. I had bought into the game with 100b so topped it up straight away to 200bb.

3rd Orbit I find this hand...

Im not sure I could get any more cash from him on this hand. I cant raise the flop here after his check as i would have to fold to a push which he is capable. I guess I could have reraised the turn but that may be advertising a flush too much.

http://weaktight.com/499145

I get KK the very next hand. This guy doesnt like to be pushed around and I think hes a little pissed losing the hand before. I also find that bad players HATE minimum reraises. They never fold. This min reraise pre flop sets up stack/bet sizes for the my weak flop bet/call shove perfectly.

http://weaktight.com/499144

So a nice 250bb profit in 2 hands from my large fishy friend. I will release his name/stats for $10 :)

November has started off well


Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Vote for Poker

A little late i know but a great post from FOX on pocket fives.

Vote for Poker in 2008

No matter how good the game is, no matter how many fish are at your favorite table, and no matter how close you are to getting a spot on the leader board, on November 4th you need to get up out of that chair for a minute and go vote. Maybe even encourage a few friends to vote. This election will decide the future of online poker and we need to take part in it or we may see our favorite game under attack once again.

For online poker players, this is far and away the most important election of our lifetimes, and if we show up in huge numbers to vote for candidates that will protect our personal freedoms and allow us to play the game we love, we can make a change. Not only can we put in candidates who will be more likely to support our right to play poker, but we can show every politician in America how strongly we feel and how many of us actually vote.

This is our best chance to flex our collective muscles and reap the benefits for years to come. If the politicians know there are millions of us, and our votes are strongly influenced by this issue, they won’t want to take that freedom away for fear that they could be voted out of office the next time around. If we don’t get out and vote in huge numbers, all of our petitions and lobbying will be in vain. If we aren’t an actual threat to their jobs, politicians won’t consider us at all.

I’m not trying to tell anyone how to vote in the presidential election and honestly either candidate will probably be much better for poker players than the current administration. I do think you should vote for the few people on Capitol Hill who have stood up for us, including Barney Frank in Massachusetts, Linda Sanchez in California, Robert Wexler in Florida, John Conyers from Michigan, Shelley Berkley in Nevada, Robert Menendez in New Jersey, Peter King of New York, Melvin Watt of North Carolina, Stephen Cohen in Tennessee, Ron Paul and Pete Sessions in Texas, Robert Scott in Virginia, and Jim McDermott in Washington State, where poker desperately needs help.

The preceding list is not all from one political party or one part of the country. They are just good lawmakers who have listened to the American people, 75% of whom are against a ban of online poker. Politicians who realize that what you do in the privacy of your own home is none of the government’s business and that the majority of Americans want that freedom left alone.
It’s just my opinion, but I think that any politician who can’t follow the people’s will or who wants to prevent me from playing poker in my own home shouldn’t get our vote no matter what else they claim to stand for because they simply can not be trusted.

I urge you all to visit the PPA’s Congressional ratings page and take a look at how your incumbents scored on the PPA’s grading system. If they don’t get a B+ grade or better, take a look at their challenger and consider voting for them instead if they appear to be a candidate who supports personal liberty. And make sure to send that link to some friends and family so they can see how their representatives score on this important issue of personal freedom too.

I’ve already contacted a Congressional member in my district, who represents the party I usually vote for, and told them that they will not be getting my vote this time around because of their record of voting against online poker. I know it’s not the only issue on your mind. We have a war overseas and a terrible economic crisis to deal with. Those things are important issues, but poker, and the freedom to play it, may be more important then you think. Consider the following:

Online poker has been rocked by two recent cheating scandals and there is very little that any regulatory body can do about it. In an unregulated industry, where the companies are not operating as licensed U.S. businesses, they have little reason to treat U.S. players well. Are you really going to go to The Isle of Mann or Costa Rica to file a court case against them? If online poker in the U.S. were legal and properly regulated, the games would be safer and more secure than they can ever be with the situation as it is now.

Prohibition leads to crime. We should have learned that lesson with alcohol 80 years ago, but politicians have short memories. We have no idea where those profits go right now, and in an unregulated environment that money could end up anywhere.

Online poker makes incredible quantities of money. Hundreds of millions of dollars in rake that could be generating tax revenue for us is being sent overseas. We are sending a massive business overseas and not allowing American companies to compete for that income at a time when our economy can use all the help it can get. And let’s not forget the players who make money. Playing online poker professionally is a career for many of us (including yours truly) and if online poker is criminalized, those jobs, and all that tax income, will be literally shipped overseas. Can you vote for a politician who wants to ship thousands of high-paying jobs overseas?

Allowing the government to tell us what we can and can not do in our own homes is a slippery slope. What’s next? If you give the government an inch, it may just take a mile as it has often done in the past.

Many of online poker’s opponents say that they are trying to prevent people with gambling problems from playing the games. I feel for those people, but if we want to protect our citizens, let’s protect the minors by regulating the games so that they can’t play. Let’s protect the people who are playing the games anyway by regulating them and keeping them safe. There are carve-outs in the anti-online gambling laws that specifically allow horse racing and lotteries, offering no protection for problem gamblers, and the current laws aren’t preventing the criminals and addicts from playing poker any way.

I’ve seen poker do good things too many times to let it die. I played in a charity tournament myself a few months ago that raised over $70,000 for the Paralyzed Veterans of America and there are charity tournaments every weekend on all the major sites for one charity or another. With legal online poker, these tournaments could draw so many more people and do so much good for the world.

The idea that our government could put us in jail for playing a game would be ridiculous if it weren’t already happening. Shame on Washington State for putting its citizens in jail and claiming that it is trying to protect them from playing online poker. Do you think your citizens are unable to make decisions for themselves? As they clear out their offices for the newly elected officials to move in, they may feel differently about how well the citizens of their State are able to make decisions on their own.

The next Congress will decide the future of online poker, and if you don’t get up from that computer and go vote, you get to play for a few hours on election day, but you might never get to play again soon after.

I spoke recently with John Pappas, the head of our most powerful ally in Washington, the Poker Player’s Alliance. I’ll end this article with a quote from John himself –
“The new Congress and White House will make important decisions about the future of Internet poker. If you care about your freedom to play, then you have to educate yourself and you have to vote on November 4th. We need to make sure that lawmakers don’t continue to take our rights for granted. If a politician is willing to come into your home and take away your right to play poker, they won’t stop there. What right will they take away next? Selecting the right candidate for poker also means selecting a candidate who cares about your personal freedoms.”

I’ll see you at the voting booth,

Chris ‘Fox’ Wallace

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Moving down to 50nl only.....




Against all my will I have had to remove most of my poker bankroll to fund renovations on my house. It was either that or sell the tvr. Ive waited to have that car far too long to just flip it out after 3 months.

I have left enough to work with in my accounts to hopefully rebuild and make the steady climb to the midstakes. This obviously kills my goals for year end.

I am leaving a balance of approx $1500 for poker. This will by solely for $50nl until I reach $2500 then move up to $100nl.

Graphs / Charts and analysis to start again soon. Off to Lake Como in Italy this weekend so no pokering for me.

I will be writing a post soon on the main aspects of beating 50nl.. I have to beat it first again though otherwise you wont believe me..


Ryverrat.

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Marginal Situations Tweak

Another conclusion I have arrived at is that playing marginal ev situations at 50nl and probably 100nl is not worth it. I was looking through my database of winning players at this level and found that hardly any of them are playing marginal situations as regular as me. This situations are rarely profitable at these levels whereas good solid poker wins.

Cutting down on cbets when missed, bluffing less and playing less marginal hands out of position is a good strategy when you are playing with monkeys who cannot lay down an underpair or mid pair hands.

The downside of this is that you will sometimes lose value when pushed off of hands where you were ahead but this is made up for more than enough for when you have a hand and gain their flop bet, turn bet and sometimes river bet / stack. The profit will come from extracting maximum value from strong hands. Occasionally, read dependent it may be ok to make a marginal play but overall I think it is not optimum at the small stakes.

I will start showing numbers and graphs again soon. Im still maintaining my bankroll goal of $10k by the end of the year. Current online roll around $5300

Monday, October 13, 2008

A Devil in the River.

I have been fighting with myself for the past 2 months trying to figure out where the hell my skill at poker has gone. I am not losing, I am not winning. I am breakeven. The only profit I am making is via bonuses and rakeback and this is not right.

From Feb to Jun I was a winning player, I turned $500 into $5000 just playing my game now I just treading water. What is missing ?

Location - My winning run stopped when I moved from Australia back to the UK. Australia evening would be midnight to early hours US time. This is like having position on players on a global poker table. You have to be at an advantage over the long term by playing the witching hour when you are fresh and sober. In the UK I play in the evening against other UK players and midday US players who are generally better players than the evening shift.

Forums - The Internet nazis at my work have cut off access to two plus two forums. I cannot read about poker at work, I cannot comment and strategize about different hand histories and this lets you step out of your 'A' game thinking. I have to fix this one somehow.

I believe these two factors have led me to make just a few mistakes but dramatically affected my win rate. Making big mistakes 1 in a 1000 times sounds too small to make a difference but that it what is happening. It only takes 1 wrong call on the river where the bets are much larger to knock all your profit making from the past 999 hands. I am picking up lots of small pots and losing a big one on a bad river call. I am picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.

That is my conclusion after looking at my main losing hands over the past few months. If I could take away those large river calls where looking back it was very marginal then I would be making a decent return. I have to play my 'A' game every time I sit down. Nothing less.

For anyone else breaking even, take a look at your pokertracker numbers. Take your top few hand losses per 1000 hands and see if they were lost calling large river bets. Is it just me or is this a common leak from most players ?

Thursday, October 9, 2008

Inside the mind of a poker maniac

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:
UTG ($38.15)
CO ($41.80)
BTN ($47.30)
SB ($200.55)
Hero ($89.75)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 5 players) Hero is BB

2 folds, BTN raises to $2, 1 fold, Hero calls $1

Flop: ($4.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $3, BTN calls $3

Turn: ($10.50, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($10.50, 2 players)
Hero goes all-in $84.75, BTN goes all-in $42.30

Final Pot: $137.55
BTN shows:
Hero shows:

Hero wins $134.05 ( won +$44.30 )
BTN lost -$47.30

Can anyone explain this hand ? Apparantly yes. I showed this hand to a guy at work who has played poker before and listens to me ramble on about my poker wins and losses. I was taking him through each stage of the hand. Villain's flop call was 'obviously 67' he said to my amazement. I was impressed. He seemingly picked the villains cards out of the blue with no history or read. When I showed him the call on the river he smiled and said yeah, thats easy he called because he was bluffing.

OMFG! what?

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Another Breakeven month !!







A quite frustrating month to be honest. I could have played around 15k hands this month but with house renovations, a trip abroad and a passing away in the family I could only manage the above. The fact still remains though that I am break even.. again! I cleared a $150 bonus = about $150 in rakeback so im up for the month but im not happy about it. To be honest I dont think there is much wrong with my game. I have analysed a few areas I need to work on and will strive to do this for October.

The bulk of my hands this month have been at nl($0.50) and I have played a 22/13 style. This could be closer. I feel like a 19/15 style would work so will aim to bring this more into line.

A number I want to look at is Won $ WSF % (Without seeing flop) = 38% Is this anywhere near where it should be. I generally raise 3x BB in early position and 4x BB in later positions. I need to work out if the 4x BB in later positions is building good pots to win or discouraging players to call. Obviously this is table/villain dependant but with a large enough sample size there could be a leak.

My button play is 28/18 which I am happy with and the $128 loss is due to a few large stupid calls I made. Bad play me.

So my call to you readers, can you see any glaring holes in my numbers here. Am I missing something ?