Thursday, May 1, 2008

The fish almost got away

Ok I was going to post this as a nice win but after thinking about it Im not sure of the right play.

http://weaktight.com/179802

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:
UTG ($113.39)
Hero ($121.90)
CO ($54.10)
BTN ($93.50)
SB ($66.50)
BB ($82.90)


Pre-flop: ($1.5, 6 players) Hero is UTG+1

UTG raises to $3, Hero calls $3, 1 fold, BTN raises to $14, 2 folds, UTG calls $11, Hero calls $11
(UTG was playing a terrible 70 $vpip 35 pfr 70/35. I was a little wary of the raise being UTG and maybe I should have raised. I would have had to fold to an all in shove though so I called to see what would develop. BTN raises, this could be a squeeze but with UTG calling I am priced in to call)

Flop: ($43.5, 3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $20, BTN calls $20, UTG calls $20
(I flop the flush with a gutshot straight flush draw. I cant give an Ad a free card and I would like to get all the money in here so I bet half the pot and hope one of them has hit, puts me on a flush draw and pushes. Unfortunately they both just call. What are we putting them on here ?? With 3 Diamonds on the board what hands would call ? 33/99/kk for a full house draw ? Adx for a flush draw ? maybe Adxd has me drawing dead. UTG's range is so wide that he could have anything here. BTN I think has 1 diamond in his hand.)

Turn: ($103.5, 3 players)
UTG checks, Hero goes all-in $87.9, 1 fold, UTG goes all-in $79.39
(Safe card for me. But here is where I think I may have gone wrong. UTG checks. I have less than a pot size bet. Any bet from me will have me pot committed and the players will know this. I cant give a free card here as pocket pairs may hit a boat and an Ad may hit a flush. So i bet all in.)

River: ($270.79, 2 players)


Final Pot: $262.28
UTG shows:
Hero shows:

Hero wins $267.29 ( won +$145.39 )
BTN lost -$34.00
UTG lost -$113.39

Now lucky for me UTG could not lay his set down. Was his call on the turn incorrect ? Against this player my bet was ok. He was real bad and wouldnt have been able to lay Top PAir Top Kicker down. He was calling with a wide range of hands but against a better player, a decent regular should they have called ?


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
44 games 0.005 secs 8,800 games/sec
Board: 9d 3d Kd 8s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 77.273% 77.27% 00.00% 34 0.00 { JdTd }
Hand 1: 22.727% 22.73% 00.00% 10 0.00 { 9h9s }

He clearly hasnt got odds to call if he thinks I have the flush. This is a great reason to bet out when you hit a flush as to hide the strength of your hand.

So if my range to him was A9d+, 33, K9, QJd, then I guess its a reasonable call.


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
396 games 0.005 secs 79,200 games/sec
Board: 9d 3d Kd 8s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.111% 36.11% 00.00% 143 0.00 { 33, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, QdJd, K9o }
Hand 1: 63.889% 63.89% 00.00% 253 0.00 { 9h9s }

So my question to my readers is could I have played this any better ? We can all win money from the bad players but if UTG was semi-decent player what should my line have been ? Should I have bet more on the flop thus making the turn bet easier to call ? check raise the flop ? Should I have bet smaller on the turn to bring the button in ?

Thoughts ?


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