Saturday, January 1, 2011

The overbet on the river... ?


Full Tilt Poker, $0.05/0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash Games, 6 Players

Hounti (SB): $12.01
vicc73 (BB): $12.39
Mnolith (UTG): $13.16
sohom111 (UTG+1): $7.42
Ryverrat_08 (CO): $10
MuhammadAS (Button): $3.50
Dealt to: Ryverrat_08
Ryverrat_08 raises to $.35, (2 folds), vicc73 calls $.25,
Flop:($.75) (4 Players)
vicc73 checks, Ryverrat_08 checks,
Turn: ($.75) (4 Players)
vicc73 checks, Ryverrat_08 checks,
River: ($.75) (4 Players)
vicc73 bets $5.30, Ryverrat_08 ?,

Player was a 52/3/08 over 30 hands.

This is a fold right ??


BLAARGH! said...

Heya Rat - good to see you back!
10NL (and 25NL) are ALL about value. Don't try to out think anyone there, just believe them until they show you otherwise. Cbet, but if you get played back, fold. Let them have the little pots, get into the big pots with the clueless. Keep the pots small with the regs. They are NOT the people you will make money from. I have to keep reminding myself that, because they're playing as tight as you are. I find myself doing really well with about 24/21 average, but I don't really even look at stats anymore - I just look at how they're playing and play back accordingly.
Anyway - for the hand you have posted... sheesh. Not really a hand to slowplay. Look at his fold turn and fold river stats (though over 30 hands you probably won't see much). cbet flop. If he folds every turn, but flats flop and turn here, you're either tied or behind. As played, you dump it and wait for a better spot. He's a station, bet into him when you're positive you're ahead, not when you maybe sorta could be ahead... If you find out later he's a river shover when he's behind, then call call call, but make sure of your read first. I sometimes get 4 buyins from nutjobs like that before they realize that shoving on my doesn't really work to their benefit....

Ryverrat said...

Great advice, thanks. I think you hit the nail on the head with not trying to out think anyone at these levels and the money doesnt come from the regs.

Value value value. I hear ya.

added you to the blog list. Looks like a good read :)

DubsPoke said...

At 10NL, you can pretty much cbet close to 100% of the time when hitting a good piece. I certainly cbet this flop.

With that said, timing tells are rampant at this level. Was it quick check on the flop, time down and then check? How about on the river? Quick shove, time and then shove? With limited history, I'm folding almost 100% of the time. You are most likely chopping or losing so the EV of a call is certainly negative with rake involved.

However, this guy is an idiot based off those stats. In 30 hands, we hopefully picked up something other than his stats to help make a decision if his range is wide enough to make calling +EV.