Monday, October 13, 2008

A Devil in the River.

I have been fighting with myself for the past 2 months trying to figure out where the hell my skill at poker has gone. I am not losing, I am not winning. I am breakeven. The only profit I am making is via bonuses and rakeback and this is not right.

From Feb to Jun I was a winning player, I turned $500 into $5000 just playing my game now I just treading water. What is missing ?

Location - My winning run stopped when I moved from Australia back to the UK. Australia evening would be midnight to early hours US time. This is like having position on players on a global poker table. You have to be at an advantage over the long term by playing the witching hour when you are fresh and sober. In the UK I play in the evening against other UK players and midday US players who are generally better players than the evening shift.

Forums - The Internet nazis at my work have cut off access to two plus two forums. I cannot read about poker at work, I cannot comment and strategize about different hand histories and this lets you step out of your 'A' game thinking. I have to fix this one somehow.

I believe these two factors have led me to make just a few mistakes but dramatically affected my win rate. Making big mistakes 1 in a 1000 times sounds too small to make a difference but that it what is happening. It only takes 1 wrong call on the river where the bets are much larger to knock all your profit making from the past 999 hands. I am picking up lots of small pots and losing a big one on a bad river call. I am picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.

That is my conclusion after looking at my main losing hands over the past few months. If I could take away those large river calls where looking back it was very marginal then I would be making a decent return. I have to play my 'A' game every time I sit down. Nothing less.

For anyone else breaking even, take a look at your pokertracker numbers. Take your top few hand losses per 1000 hands and see if they were lost calling large river bets. Is it just me or is this a common leak from most players ?

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